U.S. Copper Supply and Demand: The Crucial Role of Copper in the Clean Energy Transition

As the world shifts towards a cleaner, electrified future, one metal stands at the forefront of this transformation: copper. Revered for its unmatched electrical conductivity, durability, and recyclability, copper is the backbone of numerous clean energy technologies, from wind turbines to electric vehicles. However, critical questions arise as demand for this vital resource grows exponentially. In a recent webinar we discussed U.S. Copper Supply and Demand and the S&P Global Study that was done to answer the question: Do we have enough copper to meet the future's needs, and how can we secure its supply responsibly?

The Demand Surge for Copper: A Snapshot

The global drive towards net-zero carbon emissions hinges on widespread electrification—replacing fossil fuels with renewable energy systems and electrified infrastructure. This electrification demands vast amounts of copper. According to projections by S&P Global, U.S. copper demand is expected to double by 2035, driven by:

• Transportation: Electric vehicles (EVs) and their charging stations are set to become the largest consumers of copper.
• Renewable Energy: Wind and solar energy systems rely heavily on copper for their wiring and components.
• Grid Expansion: Modernizing and expanding power grids to accommodate clean energy will further amplify copper requirements.

Copper's unique properties, particularly its superior electrical conductivity and corrosion resistance, make it indispensable in these applications. Its unparalleled ability to transmit electricity efficiently reduces energy losses, a critical factor in clean energy systems.

Domestic Copper Supply: Challenges and Opportunities

The United States sources copper through three main channels: mining, recycling, and imports. While domestic mining and refining currently contribute over half of the U.S. refined copper supply, the rest relies heavily on imports from Chile, Peru, and Canada. 

Mining and Reserves

The U.S. boasts hundreds of millions of tons of untapped copper reserves, primarily located in Arizona and other western states. Despite this abundance, mining faces significant hurdles: 

• Permitting Complexities: Half of U.S. copper reserves lie on or near federally managed lands, leading to extended approval timelines—averaging 29 years.
• Policy Uncertainty: Inconsistent regulatory frameworks deter investment and exploration. 

Recycling: A Missed Opportunity

Copper’s 100% recyclability offers a sustainable way to bolster supply. However, secondary copper production has declined drastically in the U.S. over the past two decades, now accounting for less than 6% of refined production. Much of the nation's scrap copper is exported, representing a lost opportunity to bolster domestic supply. 

Imports and Geopolitical Risks

Approximately 98% of U.S. copper imports come from free trade agreement partners, with Chile alone supplying 69%. However, reliance on imports presents risks:

• Geopolitical Tensions: Increased competition for copper from countries like China, which already consumes 40% of global refined copper, could strain trade relationships.
• Logistical Challenges: Disruptions to key routes, such as the Panama Canal, threaten the reliability and cost-effectiveness of imports. 
  
  

Addressing the Supply Gap: A Multi-Pronged Approach

To meet the surging demand for copper, the U.S. must adopt a comprehensive strategy encompassing mining, recycling, and imports.

1. Accelerating Domestic Mining and Refining

Expedited permitting processes and increased investment in refining capacities are essential. If operational hurdles are overcome, large-scale projects like the Pebble and Resolution mines, which collectively represent half of untapped U.S. copper reserves, could significantly enhance domestic production.

2. Scaling Up Recycling Efforts

Improving collection and processing rates for post-consumer copper scrap is critical. Policies incentivizing recycling and investments in secondary refining infrastructure could repatriate billions of dollars worth of exported scrap.

3. Maintaining Reliable Imports

While domestic production ramps up, continuing to source copper from free trade agreement partners will be vital. Ensuring sustainable practices in these imports aligns with U.S. environmental and ethical standards.

4. Designating Copper as a Critical Mineral

Adding copper to the U.S. Geological Survey’s (USGS) Critical Minerals List could expedite permitting processes, attract investments, and prioritize research and development for efficient extraction and recycling technologies.

The Road Ahead: Navigating Challenges and Embracing Opportunities

As we transition into what the Copper Development Association calls "Copper Age 2.0," the importance of this metal cannot be overstated. However, meeting future demand will require overcoming entrenched challenges:

• Streamlining regulatory processes to enable timely access to untapped reserves.
• Building robust recycling systems to maximize the lifecycle of existing copper.
• Mitigating geopolitical and logistical risks associated with imports.

Copper is not just a material; it’s a symbol of progress and sustainability. Its role in driving the clean energy transition places a collective responsibility on policymakers, industry leaders, and consumers to ensure its availability and use are managed wisely.

Conclusion: A Call to Action

The U.S. has the resources, technology, and partnerships needed to secure its copper supply for decades. However, an all-of-the-above approach—encompassing increased domestic mining, expanded recycling, and reliable imports—is imperative to meet the challenges ahead. Adding copper to the USGS Critical Minerals List could serve as a pivotal step in fortifying America’s position as both a leading consumer and producer of copper.

The stakes are high, but the rewards—clean energy, sustainable development, and economic resilience—make the effort worthwhile. As we electrify our future, let’s ensure copper remains a cornerstone of that journey.